$100K retest vs highest monthly close ever: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BitcoinBTC$104,391BitcoinChange (24h)0.44%Market Cap$2.07TVolume (24h)$24.5BView Morestarts June with BTC price action in a dangerous place. Can buyers preserve key bull market support levels?

Bitcoin traders are gearing up for fresh volatility as the highest-ever monthly close contrasts with increasing bets of a $100,000 retest.

Labor market weakness and Fed policy are back under the microscope as inflation diverges from interest rates.

The latest price volatility has led investors across the hodler spectrum to rethink their BTC exposure.

Retail is only just waking up, but Bitcoin whales are already exhibiting classic trend reversal behavior.

Can profitability fuel another run to as high as $120,000?

Bitcoin RSI data taints best-ever monthly close

Bitcoin managed to “save” the weekly candle close by the skin of its teeth, capping a week of retracement, which at one point totaled 8%.

At around $105,700, data fromCointelegraph Markets ProandTradingViewshows, the weekly close came in above a key level from December 2024 — one which analysis said itneeded to hold.

The results were bittersweet, with a bearish divergence playing out in the relative strength index (RSI).

A classic trend strength indicator, RSI has printed a lower high as price hits and withdraws from its highest-ever levels.

“Weekly bearish divergence locked in – and a potential bearish retest forming here as well,” trader Jelle warned in apost on X.

May ultimately sealed 11% gains, and marked the highest monthly close ever for BTC/USD despite the late comedown.

Now, data from monitoring resourceCoinGlassshows that most order book liquidity lies above, not below, the price.

In hislatest X thread, fellow trader CrypNuevo used liquidity to predict an eventual rebound to $113,000.

“We’ll eventually hit that range. Ideally $100k –> $113k,” he said about his preferred BTC price trajectory.

Powell in the spotlight as inflation and Fed diverge

US unemployment and Federal Reserve policy are the two key elements on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.

The labor market’s strength is under scrutiny afterhints of weaknessin recent data challenged the Fed’s ability to hold interest rates “higher for longer.”

The April print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which came in at or below expectations, at the same time confirmed slowing inflationary pressure.

“The moderating level of inflation means that the short-term fed funds interest rate is the highest above PCE since heading into the financial crisis in 2008,” trading firm Mosaic wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

US President Donald Trump’s first meeting with Powell last week nonetheless did little to boost bets that the current hawkish policy may change in the near future. The latest data from CME Group’sFedWatch Toolshows markets rejecting the possibility of a rate cut before September.

Powell is due to speak at the opening of the Fed Board’s International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington, DC, on June 2.

Continuing, Mosaic Asset identifies a potential Bitcoin tailwind in the form of declining US dollar strength against the background of trade-tariff uncertainty.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped back below 99 after flipping the three-figure boundary from support to resistance last month.

“If downside in DXY accelerates after losing the 100 level, that could also signal long-term concern over the outlook for US economic growth and fiscal condition,” Mosaic added.

Hodler flows suggest “market in transition”

Bitcoin’s 8% comedown from all-time highs has already sparked a shift in investor behavior.

While preserving $105,000 at the latest weekly close, BTC investors have not retained the levels of exposure seen during the height of upside in May.

In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant revealed three signs that hodlers have begun to reduce risk.

“These include significant stablecoin outflows from Binance, a decline in long-term holder (LTH) interest and contrasting accumulation patterns among different wallet cohorts,” contributor Amr Taha said in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

Binance stablecoin outflows tapped $1 billion at the end of May — potentially reflecting traders’ desire to hedge against risk.

“Stablecoin netflows are a critical liquidity indicator; negative netflows suggest that traders are moving funds out of exchanges,” Taha said.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) — entities hodling for six months or more — saw their realized cap decline through the end of the month. Realized cap refers to the combined value of all LTH coins measured by the price at which they last moved.

“The combination of heavy stablecoin withdrawals, reduced LTH accumulation, and shifting cohort behaviors signals a market in transition,” CryptoQuant concluded.

Whales rethink accumulation

A similar scenario is playing out among Bitcoin whales.

“Entities holding between (1k~10k) BTC have gradually reduced their exposure as Bitcoin’s price climbed from $81K to $110K, systematically distributing their holdings in a phased manner throughout the rally’s progression,” CryptoQuant reported.

Having ignored Bitcoin’s comeback until new all-time highs hit, retail holders are now diverging from whales by accumulating “at the top.”

Changing whale patterns have not gone unnoticed elsewhere. In its latestbiweekly reporton May 30, research firm Santiment described “clear signs of profit-taking.”

“High whale activity during market tops can sometimes point to distribution, or smart money taking profit. We have consistently seen sudden major whale transaction spikes mark price bottoms (like the one we saw on April 7, 2025) or price tops (i.e., May 22, 2025),” it wrote.

Santiment suggested watching crypto market sentiment cues for hints as to where the price might be headed in June.

“We’ve seen sentiment flip from euphoric to fearful in a matter of days, and price behavior has followed these emotions with near-perfect timing,” it noted.

After dropping by nearly 25% in two days last week, theCrypto Fear & Greed Indexnow stands at 64/100, marking a return to “greed” territory.

Profit-taking hints at $120,000 “local top”

Should the bull market stage a snap comeback, bets are already in over where the next upside target, and local top, may be.

Related:How low can the Bitcoin price go?

Last week, onchain analytics firm Glassnode leveraged hodler profitability to delineate price points at which profit-taking should again pause BTC price upside. For this, it used the standard deviation on the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio.

“MVRV Ratio compares BTC’s market price to the average investor cost basis – helping gauge when investors hold outsized unrealized profits,” it explained in anX threadon May 30.

BTC price action could thus preserve $100,000 as support, contrasting with other downside targets, which include a returncloser to the $90,000 mark.

“While $BTC is near overheated territory, it hasn’t yet crossed above the +1σ MVRV band – a level that historically triggers mass profit-taking,” Glassnode added.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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