Four Key U.S. Economic Indicators That May Affect Bitcoin’s Price This Week

Bitcoin is in the spotlight this week as crypto market participants await the release of important U.S. economic indicators. President Trump’s economic policies have made Bitcoin and the crypto markets particularly sensitive to macroeconomic data and related issues.While the major cryptocurrency is holding above the $100,000 mark, its upside potential depends on a number of key U.S. economic indicators expected to be released this week.The following U.S. economic indicators will be of particular interest to crypto traders and investors.“The week starts with a quiet Monday, followed by the publication of the CPI on Tuesday main event of the week,” is how the general mood of crypto market participants following the U.S. economic calendar can be characterized.Perhaps the most important economic indicator for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency traders will be the U.S. Consumer Price Index for April, which will be released on Tuesday, May 13 (14:30 CET).After China’s CPI inflation in April amounted to 0.1% month-on-month, compared to March’s 0.4% decline, and given the country’s capital injection, all eyes are on this week’s U.S. CPI.The April CPI is released following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week. As expected, the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged shifted attention to the bank’s accompanying statement and Powell’s press conference.Powell said uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further, making April’s CPI inflation data a key indicator.Notably, the Fed is concerned about U.S. trade policy, with Powell signaling that the Fed may be willing to maintain the current stance for an extended period.“CPI is one of the key indicators for the Fed, and this report could show whether rates are containing inflation,” noted one user on social network X.However, amid the trade chaos, some analysts believe the U.S. CPI could remain above 3% for most of the rest of the year.The U.S. CPI is forecast at 2.4%, which is in line with the 2.4% recorded in March. The March figure was below the expected 2.5%, indicating a slowdown in U.S. inflation.If the trend continues in May, showing weakening inflationary pressures, it could increase calls for the Fed to cut rates soon. Such an action could weaken the dollar but increase interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.Conversely, if CPI readings point to accelerating inflationary pressures, exceeding the March CPI level of 2.4%, this could strengthen calls for the Fed to extend its current monetary policy stance. Such an outcome could support the dollar and divert attention away from Bitcoin.Another U.S. economic indicator to keep an eye on this week is initial claims for unemployment benefits, reflecting the number of U.S. citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week. This data will be released on Thursday, May 15, at 14:30 CET.For the week ending May 3, initial jobless claims totaled 228,000. This marked a decline that beat market expectations, after 241,000 claims for the week ended April 26 and a projected 230,000.“No signs of labor market tightness in the last week of April. Jobless claims initial and continuing stable, exactly in line with the last three years,” notes global macroeconomic trends researcher The Bitcoin Layer.It’s worth noting that a lower-than-expected reading is generally considered a positive or bullish signal for the U.S. dollar and therefore bearish for Bitcoin.Against this backdrop, the lower figure suggests a healthier employment outlook in the U.S. It also indicates an improvement in the labor market, which is interpreted as a positive sign for the economy.If the trend continues, initial jobless claims for the week ended May 10 could come in below analysts’ median forecast and projections of 227,000. This could put pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.This week’s list of economic indicators includes the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes observed by companies. This indicator is released on Thursday, May 15 (14:30 CET).PPI fell 0.4% month-on-month in March, lower than the expected 0.2% increase, signaling weakening inflationary pressures. On an annualized basis, PPI came in at 2.7%, below the 3.3% forecast.A lower-than-expected PPI could fuel optimism about Fed rate cuts, potentially boosting risk assets such as Bitcoin. However, Trump’s rate policy is causing volatility due to its ability to trigger disinflationary tendencies.“Hot CPI and PPI data this week could likely trigger short-term downside for the S&P 500 (2–5% pullback) and Bitcoin (5–10% decline) due to fears of tighter Fed policy and rising yields. However, cooling geopolitical tensions (India/Pakistan and Russia/Ukraine) and potential US/China trade deal progress could mitigate losses by fostering risk-on sentiment and capping commodity-driven inflation, and S&P 500 and BTC could quickly recover,” wrote one analyst on social media X.The consumer sentiment report is also a key indicator reflecting whether the market is becoming more pessimistic or optimistic. Therefore, the preliminary data to be reported on Friday, May 16 (16:00 CET) could be crucial from the perspective of traders and investors.The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index collapsed to 52.2 in April 2025, a drop of 8% from March’s 57, hitting a near five-year low.The decline, driven by inflation fears (expectations rose to 6.5%) and trade policy uncertainty due to Trump’s tariffs, signals a contraction in consumer spending. Less spending could limit liquidity for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, potentially causing a correction in the Bitcoin price.This will be a critical week for the crypto market given the impact of U.S. macroeconomic data on investor sentiment. Data on inflation and the labor market may determine the further dynamics of Bitcoin, which now holds positions above the psychological mark of $100,000. At the same time, the uncertainty of trade policy and consumer sentiment adds to the difficulty in predicting short-term market movements.Get Started on Kraken