Bitcoin Entering Most Dynamic Month on 99 Fed Rate Cut Odds Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Crypto markets are continuing their rise this week after weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data and amid a government shutdown that saw the market adopt the stance that a Federal Reserve rate cut next month is a near certainty.
Bitcoin climbed an additional 2.15% in the last 24-hour period to $118,700, while the broader market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose 2.33% in the same period. The rally came despite, or because of, rising uncertainty in traditional markets.
The spark came from an unexpected drop in U.S. private payrolls. ADP data showed a 32,000 job decline in September, against forecasts for a 50,000 gain. With the government shutdown halting official labor data, traders are forced to lean on this miss for insights, leading to increased rate cut bets.
Data from Polymarket now shows traders weigh a 91% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps later this month, while on the CME’s FedWatch tool, odds of such a rate cut stand at 99%.
“Markets appear to have responded with relative stability in the first 24 hours following the U.S. government shutdown,” Philipp Zentner, CEO and founder of LIFI Protocol, told CoinDesk. “It’s worth noting that during the last major shutdown in 2018–2019, which lasted 35 days, markets remained largely resilient, and we may see similar dynamics this time.”
That stability, coupled with a dovish macroeconomic environment, bodes well for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Derivatives markets also reflect this shift, with open interest rising nearly 4% to $216 billion according to CoinGlass data. Similarly, spot crypto ETFs have seen more than $2.3 billion in net inflows since the beginning of the week, according to SoSoValue.
Still, some warn of structural risks. “Strategies that rely on stock premiums to buy bitcoin are hitting limits,” Justin Wang, co-founder of Zeus Network, told CoinDesk. “Sustainable institutional Bitcoin adoption requires infrastructure that doesn’t depend on market sentiment and stock premiums.”
As the shutdown drags on and economic signals grow murkier, investors appear to be turning toward alternative assets like gold and crypto. Speaking to CoinDesk, XYO co-founder Markus Levin pointed out BTC’s price structure is “showing a classic Elliott Wave completion within a rising wedge, a pattern that often signals consolidation before a decisive move.”
“Institutional flows and derivatives activity will be critical in determining whether this setup resolves with new highs or a deeper retracement. Either way, we’re entering one of Bitcoin’s historically most dynamic months, and market participants should be prepared for volatility,” he said.
Stay alert!
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead” note.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
By Oliver Knight
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Source: Farside Investors