Skeptical of spot Ether ETFs, BTC price prediction dilemma

Jameson Lopp, the co-founder of Bitcoin (BTC) security provider Casa, isn’t feeling as hopeful as the rest of the crypto industry about the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) giving the green light to a spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) later this year.

“I’m skeptical that we will see any other crypto ETFs get approved any time soon,” Lopp tells Magazine.

Lopp’s reasoning behind the bold opinion is the fact that SEC head Gary Gensler’s stance toward Ether over the past five years has been fairly standoffish.

“Just look at what Gary Gensler has said over the years. I think he’s been asked a number of times whether or not Ethereum is a security and he always refused to make any statements around that. The only reason that I can figure for that is that they’re hoping to somehow attack it as a security.”

He believes that if the spot Ether ETF gets rejected, it will only drive even more cash into Bitcoin ETFs.

“I do expect that the Bitcoin ETF will probably be the only one, at least over the short to medium term, and that will result in a lot more of the funds flowing into the Bitcoin ETFs since there simply won’t be other options,” he explains.

Lopp has become known for his expertise in Bitcoin security, but he finds it constraining when he wants to discuss other topics.

He’s tried to broaden his content on numerous occasions but says it’s like throwing fuel at the fire.

“Eventually, you say something about a different topic, and you get backlash, and maybe you get canceled. The reason why I believe that this happens is because you break the mental model of some portion of your audience,” he says.

So, when he tries to mix it up or discuss a different crypto, it’s usually met with pushback.

“This happens to me at least several times per year. And usually, it’s because I will be talking about some other protocol or crypto asset, then there’s some subset of the populace that has adopted a set of beliefs,” he declares.

One narrative that Lopp keeps consistent is his dislike for the SEC’s stance against crypto: “I think you have to treat the SEC as an adversarial actor and expect that they’re going to do everything that they can to prevent any other ETFs from launching.”

Lopp claims he has been posting like clockwork through the good and bad times in crypto.

But he almost feels his efforts during the bear markets did nothing to boost his follower count.

“I probably could have gotten to where I am today if I only tweeted during the bull markets because that’s also when the vast majority of my followers came in,” he says.

He’s one of the fortunate ones who managed to snap up his last name, “Lopp” as his X handle without needing to tack on any messy numbers or underscores.

But he doesn’t recall one viral post that really contributed to his follower count being 459,300 followers today. He has just been putting in the hard yards for the last decade:

“There wasn’t one specific tweet that gave me a crazy new following, especially during the 2017 Market. I recall that there was a point of time around, a month or two around the peak of the market where I was gaining over a thousand followers a day.”

Lopp’s X account is like having a handy encyclopedia on your feed, keeping you in the “lopp” with Bitcoin updates and self-custody tips.

“I will regularly tweet out educational content, whether it’s deep dives that I’ve done, or whether it’s just sort of fun facts that I come across or pop into a fair amount of dunking on crypto critics just because I think it’s good to have a little entertainment value,” he explains.

Plus, he knows how to mix some humor into his social media posts.

His all-time most popular post wasn’t even about crypto, it was educational to a certain extent.

It was in August 2020 when he revealed a deceptive recycling and landfill bin that appeared separated but was actually just one bin.

Lopp is mainly into following crypto developers and those building stuff in the industry.

He’s not really into hunting for the next big 100x crypto gains like others are.

“Short version, I mostly follow builders. Because I didn’t get into this from an investment standpoint so much,” he says.

He is more into the foundational principles of Bitcoin, like giving power back to the people and standing up to the big investment banks.

“I got into it from a Libertarian power dynamic standpoint. The idea of disempowering institutions and authorities and so I think I will always be more interested in discussing,” Lopp asserts.

Don’t bother asking Lopp to read your palms because he’ll tell you straight that he’s not great at predicting the future, especially when it comes to Bitcoin prices.

“No, I never do because I’m always wrong,” he laughs.

Even trying to sugarcoat a price prediction that might not pan out hasn’t really done the trick for Lopp. He recalls making a bullish prediction around five years ago that received backlash:

“I literally began my tweet saying wishful thinking, but if the cycle repeats, then Bitcoin is gonna hit $250,000 next year. Even that got taken out of context, and I was like, do you people do not know what wishful thinking means, it’s not a price prediction.”

In fact, he is so anti-price prediction that he takes note whenever a prominent crypto industry figure makes a bogus price prediction, so he can have a giggle at their expense later.

“I archive that prediction and then put a calendar reminder for a year or two or three in the future so that I can then laugh at them,” Lopp reveals.