The cries are loudening for a potential “altseason” as Ether approaches the $3,000 level, but some analysts have cautioned it may not come so soon.
On Feb. 19, Ether (ETH) prices hit an intraday and 22-month high of $2,980. The last time the asset traded above $3,000 was in April 2022.
The price movement has seemingly led many observers to believe an “ETH bull market” is near, while others have declared that altseason has already returned to crypto.
“I think there are several powerful catalysts coming up that might spark an altcoin rally,” agreed Apollo Capital chief investment officer Henrik Andersson in comments to Cointelegraph.
These were primarily Ethereum fundamentals such as the Dencun upgrade and mainnet launches for scaling solution Blast and restaking platform EigenLayer, he said, adding:
“We’re entering an ETH bull market [which is] beta for altcoins,” said Yuga Cohler, a senior engineering manager at Coinbase on X.
Meanwhile, economist and trader Mikybull Crypto told their 60,000 X followers that March is always bullish for ETH, and $3,000 is on the table, adding, “This cycle of altseason is going to be huge!”
Technical analyst and trader Titan of Crypto shared a chart of the total market capitalization of altcoins without Bitcoin (BTC) and ETH, revealing a breakout.
Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, however, says there’s a lack of evidence suggesting an altcoin season is coming.
He explained that to kickstart a viable altcoin season, “sustained reductions in Bitcoin dominance below 45% are necessary.”
The analyst also pointed out that recent altcoin rallies have quickly fizzled out, indicating a higher risk-adjusted potential favoring Bitcoin investments.
Moreover, Ethereum momentum also seems driven by potential ETF approvals in May rather than increased on-chain activity within decentralized applications, he said, concluding:
Related: Is it altseason? Altcoin 30-day performance and total market cap flash bullish
On Feb. 20, blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that since crypto markets began moving in October, the “vast majority” of crypto projects have generated profits for the average wallet on a mid to long-term timescale aside from a few lagging altcoins.
However, it cautioned that its model is indicating overbought signals, citing the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which is “revealing there is a higher risk than average in buying or opening new positions while markets are in the midst of a 4+ month surge.”
MVRV is the ratio of the total market cap divided by the realized cap. It is used for spotting local market tops and bottoms.
Based on average trading returns, many assets have seen understandably high profits since markets began booming all the way back in mid-October, 2023. Outside of a few lagging #altcoins, the vast majority of #crypto projects have generated profits for the average
(Cont) pic.twitter.com/ziKhzmcz1v— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 20, 2024
Magazine: ‘Crypto is inevitable’ so we went ‘all in’ — Meet Vance Spencer, permabull