Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been confined within a descending triangle range since reaching a new record high of around $74,800 on March 14. Over the past two months, the cryptocurrency has repeatedly attempted to break decisively above the triangle’s upper trendline and below the lower trendline, but each effort has been rejected. This ongoing pattern indicates that traders remain uncertain about the market’s next direction.As of May 15, BTC’s price was up 2% to reach an intraday high of around $63,000, accompanying lower trading volumes and thus indicating an extended period of consolidation within the triangle’s range.Supply redistribution among BTC whalesBitcoin’s consolidation phase coincides with a slight increase in the supply held by entities with a balance of 1,000-10,000 BTC (yellow) and 10,000-100,000 BTC (orange).At first glance, it appears that these whale cohorts have been accumulating Bitcoin over the past two months. However, this increase in their BTC supply corresponds with slight declines in the supply held by entities with balances of at least 100,000 BTC (red). This trend suggests that the lower cohorts are absorbing the supply being sold by the larger holders, resulting in an approximate equilibrium between buying and selling in the Bitcoin market. Such behavior is common after strong price moves, as illustrated in the chart below. From a technical perspective, descending triangle formations during a bull trend are considered bullish continuation patterns. They resolve after the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and the lower trendline, as illustrated below.This sets BTC’s upside target for May at approximately $73,840, up 17.5% from the current price levels.Related: Bitcoiner who called pre-halving all-time high predicts $95K BTC priceConversely, if the price breaks below the triangle’s lower trendline, it could decline by an amount equivalent to the triangle’s height, potentially dropping to around $49,000 in a rare descending triangle reversal scenario.2020 Bitcoin halving fractalBitcoin’s current price consolidation phase aligns with its fourth halving, and resembles the price patterns seen around the third halving in 2020. Furthermore, in both cases, the daily relative strength index (RSI) is inside the 30-70 neutral zone, indicating stable conditions without extreme bullish or bearish sentiment. This recurring trend suggests that the halving events, which reduce the reward for mining new blocks, typically influence the market to enter a period of price stabilization as investors adjust to the new supply dynamics.Bitcoin’s open interest is stabilizingBitcoin’s open interest (OI), a measure of the value of outstanding derivative contracts, has significantly decreased from its recent peak. On March 29, OI was over $39 billion, but it subsequently fell to around $30 billion and has since stabilized at this level. This stabilization indicates that the market is taking a breather after a period of significant volatility.Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s funding rate reached 0.037% per week on May 15, though it remains below its March peak of 2.03% per week. Paired with the stabilizing open interest, this indicates that while traders anticipate a price rise, their trading actions are not aggressive. Simply put, general confidence in current pricing reflects uncertainty about future price movements beyond the short term, leading to flat spot Bitcoin market.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
