Crypto exchange Coinbase believes the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%.In a May 15 report, Coinbase Institutional Research Analyst David Han asserted that the main factor that led the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs — the correlation between CME futures product and spot exchange rates — could also lead it to approve spot Ethereum ETFs.Han said there is “room for surprise to the upside on this decision,” both on prediction markets and in the fact that Grayscale Ethereum Trust is trading at a 24% discount.He conceded that the SEC’s silence has caused “uncertainty” and that spot ETH ETFs that specifically aim to engage in ETH staking are unlikely to gain approval.Coinbase is optimistic in part because of crypto’s key role in US politics. Han said that the SEC will spend political capital by denying spot ETH ETFs, a strategy that Coinbase believes is uncertain.Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams echoed that sentiment, stating that expectations for approval were low until Democrats “caught wind their anti-crypto SEC chair could lose them an election.”Neither individual described any specific political developments. However, recent surveys show that crypto owners slightly favor Trump over Biden. Uniswap founder Hayden Adams has described crypto as a Republican rallying point in contrast to the Biden administration’s regulatory approach.SEC Chair Gensler and two other voting commissioners are Democrats, while another two voting commissioners are Republicans, giving the agency both Democratic leadership and majority.Han noted that the SEC does not need to approve all spot applications at once.Each spot ETH ETF application has a different decision deadline. The SEC must decide on VanEck’s application first by May 23 but can decide on BlackRock and Fidelity’s applications as late as August.Han also argued that a May rejection 23 could lead to legal action that reverses the decision.In January, SEC chair Gary Gensler cited a lawsuit from Grayscale over the proposed conversion of GBTC as one factor in the agency’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, Grayscale has not stated that it will file a similar lawsuit around spot ETH ETFs.Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas commented on Coinbase’s contrarian and optimistic stance, writing:“It’s like a way out of the money call option to give themselves notoriety if off chance it happens. No harm if they wrong. Risk-free PR move.”He concluded that predictions from himself and his colleagues are “braver and riskier reputationally than… [last minute random] contrarian calls.”Balchunas posted a low estimate on May 14, when he said the odds of spot ETH ETF approvals are “slim to none.” In late March, he predicted “very pessimistic” 25% approval odds.Crowd-sourced estimates provide similarly low odds. At the time of writing, Polymarket odds of approval were 10%, down from 16% at the time of Coinbase’s report.Before transitioning to crypto writing in 2018, Mike studied library and information sciences. Currently, he resides on Canada’s West Coast.AJ, a passionate journalist since Yemen’s 2011 Arab Spring, has honed his skills worldwide for over a decade. Specializing in financial journalism, he now focuses on crypto reporting. Must-read crypto news & insights. Delivered daily.Courts dismissed the case without prejudice, leaving Musk an option to refile the case at a later date.The S-1 filing follows the SEC’s approval of NYSE Arca’s proposed rule change on behalf of ProShares.Rob Marrocco believes crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum are unlikely without first establishing a futures market or changing regulation.Ripple said Standard Custody CEO Jack McDonald would help the firm achieve its USD-backed stablecoin plans.The S-1 filing follows the SEC’s approval of NYSE Arca’s proposed rule change on behalf of ProShares.All spot ETH ETFs have yet to launch despite recent developments.ICBC compared Bitcoin to gold and said Ethereum has established itself as “digital oil” capable of powering myriad applications across the web3 ecosystem.DeFillama data shows the platform’s TVL rose 135% despite the attack.CryptoSlate’s latest market report dives deep into the effects corporate Bitcoin purchases have on the market.Disclaimer: Our writers’ opinions are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of CryptoSlate. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice, nor does CryptoSlate endorse any project that may be mentioned or linked to in this article. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own due diligence before taking any action related to content within this article. Finally, CryptoSlate takes no responsibility should you lose money trading cryptocurrencies.
