Bitcoin downside risk lingers, upside hinges on holding above $102K

Bitcoin is still at risk of falling further, and it must hold above $102,000 to stay on track for a potential rebound, crypto analysts say.

Bitfinex analystssaidin a markets report on Tuesday that if BitcoinBTC$105,435BitcoinChange (24h)1.81%Market Cap$2.09TVolume (24h)$32.44BView More“can hold above the $102,000 – $103,000 region for a sustained period, it would suggest that the market is absorbing the selling pressure effectively.”

Bitcoin a potential bold play with big payoff

The analysts said that “some downside risk still lingers” for Bitcoin amid macroeconomic volatility and military escalations between Israel and Iran, but it presents a high-stakes yet potentially rewarding opportunity for investors.

“This environment now reflects a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for upside continuation if buyer confidence returns,” the analysts said. Meanwhile, crypto trader Matthew Hylandsaidon X that “choppy price action but still in an uptrend for BTC.”

There was strong optimism that Bitcoin would retest its all-time high of $111,940 last week,which was dashedafter Israel carried out dozens of airstrikes on Iran on Thursday night.

In the following 90 minutes after news of Israel’s bombardment, Bitcoin slipped 2.8% from $106,042 to $103,053 before retracing to $104,790 at the time of publication,accordingto CoinMarketCap.

Despite the macro uncertainty, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds kept seeing strong inflows throughout the week, reaching six consecutive trading days in a row on June 16 with $412.2 million coming in,accordingto Farside data.

Bitcoin won’t fall as fast as last year

Bitfinex analysts said that even if Bitcoin trends lower, the drop won’t be as steep as in past years. In August, Bitcoin dropped roughly 20% to $53,991 within just 10 days.

July 1 marks the beginning of the third quarter, which has historically been the weakest period for Bitcoin in terms of average returns since 2013,accordingto data from CoinGlass.

Giving a more bullish forecast, the analysts said that the current market conditions “also resemble prior capitulation-driven setups which usually result in Bitcoin reversing course shortly after aggressive selling.”

However, some analysts believe Bitcoin’s price may have plateaued for now. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Tradessaidin a X post on Tuesday that “Bitcoin has struggled to break its current all-time high region and has stalled out for now.”

Daan said that Bitcoin’s long-term trend “has been very clean,” but he is watching the bull market support band to determine Bitcoin’s next move.

“The cycle has now gone on for quite a while, so holding on to the bull market support band will be critical to keep this cycle’s momentum going,” Daan said.

Related:25% Bitcoin price rally set to follow today’s correction if history repeats

EY strategist and crypto trader Danny Marques offered a more optimistic outlook,stating, “The current move has significant room to expand structurally, momentum-wise, and psychologically.”

“Bitcoin hasn’t even entered the euphoric zone yet,’ Marques said.

However, although many crypto market participants — includingStrategy’s Michael Saylor— expect Bitcoin to avoid another crypto winter, some analysts remain skeptical.

“It’s very likely one will occur after this Bull Market,” crypto trader Rekt Capitalsaid.

Magazine:Arthur Hayes doesn’t care when his Bitcoin predictions are totally wrong

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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