Bitcoin continues to soar, and has flitted just 11% away from touching its all-time high of $69,044. It certainly feels like a bull run—but how long will that feeling last?
To be sure, crypto Twitter has opinions. This cycle will be shorter than previously, the chattering class opines, but experts are torn.
The biggest digital coin by market cap is now trading for $61,323, having risen by 43% over the past month, as it stood at $42,172 at the start of February, according to CoinGecko. It’s now hitting highs not reached since 2021.
“I think most are surprised at how quickly crypto has run in the past four weeks,” Patrick Felder, Prismatic Capital founder and CIO, told Decrypt.
He continued that “these parabolic rallies typically see 20 to 30% pullbacks” with major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, “but knowing or guessing when is impossible.”
Felder also noted that metrics such as weak Google searches for Bitcoin, the low ranking for Coinbase in mobile app stores, and altcoins still far from their all-time highs point to us being early in a bull run. This cycle is also different due to the approval of spot BTC ETFs.
Meanwhile, Saxet Infrastructure Group co-owner Ro Shirole told Decrypt that the duration of cycles is unlikely to change. Instead, the floor will be raised this time due to a “resurgence in institutional interests.”
This bull run is different because institutional money has flooded into the space with the approval of spot BTC ETFs, Shirole asserted, adding that the upcoming Bitcoin halving was a factor.
“If the supply is indeed cut every four years, inevitably the value should continue to rise over time if tried and tested economic theories hold up,” he explained.
The halving, set to take place next month, will see miners’ rewards slashed in half. Some claim that this is a bullish indicator for the biggest digital coin: data shows that the price of BTC has always risen significantly following each prior event—albeit many months after.
“I think each halving there are different macro factors which contribute to volatility on both sides of the halving,” Shirole said. “However I personally feel the general trajectory over the course of the next 12-18 months is quite bullish based upon historic trends.”
There are other things to take into account this time, however, such as the Federal Reserve’s next steps with interest rates.