Coinbase Stock Price Soars on SP 500 Inclusion

Coinbase Global Inc. saw its Coinbase stock price surge by as much as 15% in extended trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it would join the S&P 500 on May 19, replacing Discover Financial Services. The move marks the first time a cryptocurrency company has been added to the benchmark U.S. equity index. 

Shares closed up 4% during regular hours at $207.00, then jumped to $225 post-market, lifting Coinbase’s market capitalization to roughly $51 billion. This inclusion reflects growing institutional acceptance of digital-asset firms and positions Coinbase stock to benefit from index-fund inflows. Below, we explore the immediate impact on the Coinbase stock price and offer a Coinbase stock price prediction for investors eyeing the May 28 earnings report.

Coinbase’s shares rallied 8.6% in after-hours trading Monday, following a 4% gain during the regular session as the news broke. By Tuesday pre-market, the stock was up nearly 10%, briefly touching $230 before settling near $225. This surge outpaced broader market gains; while the S&P 500 climbed 0.9% on easing inflation concerns, Coinbase led the pack with its historic inclusion.

Index-tracking funds that replicate the S&P 500 must purchase Coinbase shares to mirror the index composition, creating an estimated $1–$2 billion of incremental demand on day one. Given Coinbase’s weight, roughly 0.1% of the index, this translates into substantial buy flows, supporting the Coinbase stock price in the short term. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs forecasts that passive-fund inflows could propel the stock another 5–7% in the weeks following inclusion.

While Coinbase’s revenue fell 10% year-over-year last quarter, the exchange still posted a modest profit of $65.6 million, satisfying S&P’s profitability requirement. The forthcoming May 28 earnings report will be crucial: analysts expect total revenue of $2.1 billion and EPS of $0.25, up from $0.24 a year ago. Strong operational performance could fuel further gains in the Coinbase stock price ahead of the report.

Coinbase stock price prediction: What’s Next After Inclusion?

Looking forward, consensus Coinbase stock price prediction models project a 12-month target between $260 and $300, reflecting both the index-inclusion lift and long-term growth prospects in crypto trading. If passive-inflow tailwinds persist and Bitcoin stays above $100,000, Coinbase could easily breach the $260 level by Q3 2025.

However, investors should watch for headwinds: regulatory scrutiny may intensify under forthcoming SEC rulemakings on digital assets, and trading volumes can be volatile, impacting exchange-fee revenue. A bearish scenario—if Bitcoin price analysis suggests it falls below critical support at $90,000—could drag Coinbase’s stock back toward $180, its 200-day moving average. In that case, the Coinbase stock price prediction range would shift to a lower band of $200–$220 for the remainder of 2025.

Longer term, strategic moves such as the pending $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit could diversify Coinbase’s revenue streams into derivatives trading, supporting a bullish Coinbase stock price prediction toward $350 by 2026. Institutional demand for custody and lending services also presents multi-year growth opportunities.

Conclusion

Coinbase’s entry into the S&P 500 has already delivered a significant boost to the Coinbase stock price through passive-fund demand and positive market sentiment. With the May 28 earnings report on the horizon, investors will be focused on trading volumes, margin trends, and regulatory developments to refine their Coinbase stock price prediction. 

While risks remain—from crypto-market volatility to policy uncertainty—the milestones this week underscore Coinbase’s maturation as a public company and validate its strategic pivot toward institutional services. As the first crypto firm in the S&P 500, Coinbase is uniquely positioned to capture inflows from both retail and professional investors, setting the stage for its next leg of growth in 2025. 

With Crypto ETFs growing at a record pace, institutional demand continues to drive inflows amid market rallies in the crypto industry, and with more crypto ETFs poised to launch, Coinbase is uniquely positioned to capture significant passive-fund capital alongside its S&P 500 inclusion.

About the Author: Sarah Zimmerman is a seasoned crypto and Web3 news writer passionate about uncovering the latest developments in the digital asset space. With years of hands-on experience covering blockchain innovations, cryptocurrency trends, and decentralized technologies, she strives to deliver insightful and balanced news that empowers her readers. Her work is dedicated to demystifying complex topics and keeping you informed about the ever-evolving world of technology.