Golds Historic Run Dwarfs BTC But Analyst Remains Positive Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As gold pushed through the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time, bitcoin (BTC) lost 1.25% of its value and the wider crypto market, as measured by the coinDesk 20 (CD20) index, dropped 3%.
The drop came amid profit-taking after the crypto market rose more than 7.7% in less than a week and as whales’ paper gains swelled. The divergence also comes as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rises to its highest level in two months.
Gold, long viewed as a safe haven, has rallied over 50% this year. Inflows into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have accelerated, with holdings now at their highest levels since late 2022, according to ING.
Investors are seeking cover from rising political risk, including a new leadership crisis in France and growing tensions in Japan’s fiscal policy direction. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its second week, has delayed key economic data and added to concerns about its fiscal outlook.
Bitcoin, while often considered as a hedge against uncertainty, has been hit by the rising U.S. dollar and short-term whales moving their BTC to exchanges, which suggests they’ve moved to lock in profit.
Adding to bitcoin’s headwinds is the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields, which jumped to a 17-year high this week. The 10-year yield touched 1.70%, pricing in the fiscal risks of incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Abenomics-inspired spending agenda.
Per Goldman Sachs, pressure from Japanese bold yields could spill over into global bonds. Higher bond yields tend to tighten financial conditions globally and reduce investor appetite for riskier assets like BTC.
Still, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains. U.S.-listed spot ETFs added over $3 billion in inflows last week, pushing total net inflows past $60 billion. This week, an additional $2 billion have been brought in, per SoSoValue.
Other developments include S&P Global unveiled the Digital Markets 50 Index benchmark which tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-linked equities, while the Intercontinental Exchange invested a $2 billion investment in crypto-native predictions market Polymarket.
“In the near term, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook remains positive, supported by monetary easing expectations, consistent ETF inflows, and persistent safe-haven demand,” Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, said in an emailed statement. “Should the Fed deliver clearer signals about the start of a rate-cut cycle in upcoming meetings, Bitcoin is likely to continue benefiting, with room to extend higher into new price territories in the fourth quarter.”
The next test could come from the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in rate cuts, and if the Fed confirms a shift toward easing, both gold and bitcoin could see renewed momentum.
Stay alert!
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
By Oliver Knight

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Source: Farside Investors