Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has declined by around 3.70% week-to-date to reach approximately $61,650 on May 9. That is approximately 16.50% lower after setting a new record high of around $73,835 on March 14. Bitcoin’s price drop in recent weeks coincides with a lackluster response to the market debut of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong, the United States Federal Reserve’s higher for longer interest rate policy, and diminishing flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. So how low can Bitcoin price can go in the ongoing corrective cycle?Rising wedge consolidation puts Bitcoin at $54,000Bitcoin’s current price correction is unfolding within a falling wedge pattern, marked by two downward-sloping trendlines that converge at an apex point estimated to be around $54,000. The BTC/USD pair could drop toward the said level by June if it keeps consolidating inside the wedge range. Interestingly, the wedge’s apex point is near BTC’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart above), thus offering a double-layered support for the price to initiate a bounce.That aligns with how falling wedges typically play out: the price breaks above the pattern’s upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendline, as illustrated below.Applying the same technical rule on Bitcoin’s daily chart presents its falling wedge target at around $63,880, up approximately 3.5% from the current price levels. In other words, any further declines in the Bitcoin market could present opportunities to buy the dip.Related: Bitcoin price to ‘sustain’ $265K level once boring consolidation ends — AnalystsBTC could “dip into high 40s”Veteran trader Peter Brandt expects the Bitcoin price to dip into the higher end of the $40,000 to $50,000 range, citing a descending triangle pattern developing after the cryptocurrency’s failure to decisively reclaim its previous record high of $69,000.“I have seen dozens of significant market tops over the years with charts that looked like this descending triangle,” Brandt argued, citing the chart below.He added: Interestingly, Brandt’s bearish perspective on Bitcoin suggests a classic descending triangle reversal scenario, where the price could breach the lower trendline of the triangle and drop an amount equivalent to the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines.Confirmation of the descending triangle reversal scenario will increase the chances of Bitcoin dropping toward $48,550, down by over 20% when measured from current price levels, aligning with Brandt’s “high 40s” prediction.Bitcoin’s 2021 fractal indicates more painFrom a technical standpoint, the ongoing Bitcoin price correction has occurred alongside a decline in the weekly relative strength index (RSI) from its overbought territory. In doing so, the RSI has broken below a multimonth ascending trendline support, akin to the trend that preceded a sharp price correction in 2021. Back then, BTC’s price fell toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave), raising the possibility of repeating the same scenario in 2024. That brings BTC’s downside target to around $46,110 by June, a level aligning with its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line.A decisive break below the 50-week EMA will risk sending the price toward the 200-week EMA at around $32,410, down about 58% from the current price levels.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
