Is BTC in ‘up only’ mode after rising above $94K?

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.Bitcoin’s rise to a level not seen in more than a month has many wondering when its price will get back to six digits — and what exactly it will take. Maybe not as much as you’d think. Bitcoin was trading around $93,700 at 1:30 pm ET — up 12% from a week ago. NewsletterSubscribe to Forward Guidance NewsletterThe crypto market benefits from a foundation of “long-term structural growth drivers,” YouHodler markets chief Ruslan Lienkha reminded me — namely deeper integration with TradFi, improving regulatory clarity in the US, adoption via bitcoin ETFs, etc. A quick note on the inflows into the US spot BTC funds yesterday:Headwinds in recent months preventing a new all-time high above ~$109,000 include mixed expectations around US tariff policy, future Fed actions and the potential for a recession. That has, as you know, more broadly sent the stock market tumbling in recent weeks.That said, Lienkha’s view is: “Bitcoin does not require a strong equity rally to move higher. Simply a stable and less volatile macro backdrop would likely be sufficient to support renewed upside momentum.”While BTC crashed alongside equities earlier this month, it has more recently strayed from acting as a high-beta version of US tech stocks. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes alludes to this in a Tuesday blog post — and in his convo with Forward Guidance’s own Felix Jauvin. “Now that the global community believes Trump is a madman crudely and savagely wielding the tariff weapon, any investor with US stocks and bonds is looking for something whose value is anti-establishment,” Hayes wrote in the blog post. “Physically, that’s gold. Digitally, that’s bitcoin.”Major economies printing money to cushion the effects of declining globalization would serve as a tailwind for BTC, he added to Jauvin.We’ve written before about how various market participants perceive bitcoin as a risk-on asset. That’s despite the asset sharing global, scarce properties similar to gold — a metal that has hit new price highs amid the latest market turbulence.Hayes believes BTC bottomed at $74,500, adding optimistically: “Bitcoin will shed its association with said tech stocks and will rejoin gold in the ‘Up Only’ cuddle puddle.” I’ll say it for him — that’s not investment advice.