'Is It Priced In?'—Unpacking Crypto’s Perennial Question on Bitcoin Halving Eve

‘Is It Priced In?’—Unpacking Crypto’s Perennial Question on Bitcoin Halving Eve

With the Bitcoin halving just a day away, it would seem that by now most people would have gotten their answer to the enduring question: “Is it priced in?”But that won’t stop the crypto curious from continuing to ask it Nobody “Buy the rumor, sell the news” is a widely circulated narrative when events like this come around. Some people, called So how has the crypto market fared in the wake of previously hyped events? From Elon Musk on SNL to the Super Bowl, let’s take a trip down memory lane.It was the peak of the 2021 bull run. The Tesla founder was announced as the host of Musk In this case, it seems the news was already priced in. Although this may have been skewed by the now-Twitter owner not being fully positive about the meme coin. Dogecoin actually saw a One of—if not the—most anticipated moments in Ethereum history: In September 2022, In the months leading up to the upgrade, Again, it seems like the merge was priced in here. It was 2022 and the Cincinnati Bengals were set to face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Crypto companies saw this as an Given the massive mainstream audience, many believed these ads would bring regular folk into the crypto space and raise the tides.This was true, in part, as according to analytics company Sensor Tower, the ads boosted Many crypto companiesThe Matt Damon “No Super Bowl ad has aged worse than FTX’s What we learned is that a single Super Bowl ad won’t lift your project to new highs. Collectively, though, they did increase public awareness of the cryptocurrency industry, Zonk was extremely interested in the tv for the @coinbase #SuperBowl commercial pic.twitter.com/ZDZGfmAHWq— Haley Spracale (@haleymspracale) February 14, 2022At the start of the year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allowed spot Some analysts said that the crypto market cap could be Following the approval, Three months later, Bitcoin’s price is up 42%, according to While it appears the ETF news itself was pretty much priced in, the volume that followed wasn’t.This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has gone through a halving. There have been three since its inception.The first took place on November 28, 2012. In the year following the first halving, Bitcoin climbed from $12 to $1,000, according to data from CoinGecko Taking a look back at history suggests that the question “Is it priced in?” has a much more complex answer than you’d think. Each scenario is different with unique circumstances influencing each.What would have happened if Musk had shilled Doge a bit harder? Would