Myriad Moves: Predictions on Trump Tariffs, the Canadian Election, Next Pope and More

The rise of By using a prediction market like Myriad, users can follow or wager on a real-time, community-sourced indicator of an event’s likelihood, potentially cashing in on their knowledge in the process.What’s popping on Myriad this week? Here’s a look at some of the most interesting, active, and newsworthy markets right now, including current odds and helpful context.(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Market Opened: April 7Closes: April 28Volume: $39.6KCanada will soon begin voting in its general election, and Myriad users believe Bitcoin critic and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney will come out on top. Odds for the incumbent candidate have Earlier this year, Since that time though, the candidate’s chances have slowly declined, falling to just 15% on prediction market Polymarket today. Those odds follow similarly on Myriad, which showcases the current chances of the Liberal Party losing—or Poilievre winning—at just 17.4%.Voting for the general election will begin on April 28.Market Opened: April 21Closes: May 19Volume: $8.38KAfter the death of Pope Francis, it didn’t take long before bettors began speculating on the election of the next leader of the Catholic Church. To select a new Pope, a two-thirds majority of eligible cardinal electors must agree on a decision via ballots cast in secrecy. Though the process—also known as a conclave—is unlikely to Shortly after the market opened, users on Myriad were largely split between three available options, providing a small edge to Cardinal Pietro Parolin from Italy. Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines was shortly behind on Myriad at the time, with odds following similarly on Polymarket’s prediction market of the same kind.As the week progressed, odds have shifted to favor “Other” at 48.2% on Myriad, sending down the odds for Parolin slightly to 29.2% and more dramatically for Tagle, who now sits at just 22.2%—around a 10% decline since the afternoon of market open. According to a Market Open: April 15Predictions Close: June 13Volume: $14.7K President Donald Trump’s consistently inconsistent tariff plan has created volatility beyond traditional financial and crypto markets, expanding to prediction markets as well.One such example is Myriad’s U.S.-China Trade Deal market, which offers predictors the option to wager whether or not the two global powers will come to a deal prior to Chinese President Xi’s 72nd birthday on June 15. As the two leaders have sparred with comments around a potential deal, the market has followed suit, reaching a mark as high as 55% in favor of “Yes” on April 17. But then it fell to 39.9% on April 21 as China has warned that countries should not gang up against it to try and curry favor with Trump and the United States.In the days that followed, remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not Markets have been relatively stable over the last few days, aside from a brief spike to 76% for “No” in the early Thursday morning hours. Since that time, odds against a trade deal retraced, currently standing at 62.4% in favor of no trade deal between the two nations by June 15.A Financial Times report indicates U.S. and Chinese officials had met Thursday, but President Trump didn’t provide any details.Market Open: April 11Myriad users don’t believe that President Donald Trump’s current crusade against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will lead to a rate cut by May 8, at least not at this time. The market on Myriad shows the odds of “no cut” by May 8 to be 84.2%—a 5.3% gain in the week since the market opened—despite calls from President Trump for Powell to do so. In a Truth Social post earlier this week, Trump referred to Powell Bitcoin Nevertheless, a Fed decision market on Polymarket holds odds at 91% of “no change” for the Fed’s May decision, strongly mirroring Myriad predictors’ thoughts Additionally volatility may be in the cards as the Fed prepares for its next FOMC meeting, currently scheduled for May 6-7.Edited by Andrew Hayward