On the Margin Newsletter: The ether ETF edition

Today, enjoy the On the Margin newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter.Welcome to the On the Margin Newsletter, brought to you by Ben Strack and Casey Wagner and. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:We’re in the midst of something historic — and no, I’m not talking about President Biden’s decision to bow out of the 2024 presidential race.There’s another race set to start: the US spot ether ETF battle for assets. Those funds are expected to launch tomorrow, people close to the process have told Blockworks.Beyond the competition between issuers, the launches reflect history in the making. The first US ETFs directly holding bitcoin launched in January. Now, six months later, ether funds are set to represent another milestone. Let’s take a look back at how we got here:Phew, and that brings us to today!The US spot ETH ETFs will not stake their holdings, a feature that could deter some investors, we’ve heard.Still, industry watchers expect the funds to attract significant investor capital — with some estimates ranging from about 15% to 30% of the net inflows US spot bitcoin ETFs have seen ($17 billion in six-plus months). This new ETH access unlock for a broader set of investors will be just one thing we keep an eye on in what expects to be an eventful second half of 2024. — Ben StrackThe amount hackers exploited from Indian exchange WazirX late last week, prompting the platform to halt trading over the weekend. The exploit accounted for nearly half of WazirX’s reserves, the company said Sunday.By Monday morning, the company posted that it was “actively working on enabling withdrawals for our users,” but the status of assets remained unknown.  The security breach comes after hackers made off with cryptocurrencies worth more than $1.3 billion during the first half of 2024, according to a recent report from TRM Labs. The biggest news of the week (or year, rather) came on Sunday afternoon when President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the presidential race. Shortly thereafter, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. When Biden dropped the news, CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer was sipping an Aperol spritz at El Presidente in DC. I, meanwhile, was on the Long Island Rail Road, where I may or may not have been regretting some Aperol spritzes of my own from the weekend prior. We were both, unfortunately, called into work. It’s probably safe to say though that no one had the so-called “Sunday scaries” worse than Biden.Today, everyone is digesting the news. The big questions now are who Harris will pick as a running mate, with many wondering if she will even secure the Democratic nomination. The election is just 106 days away. Despite the political uncertainty, stocks posted a strong start to the week Monday, bolstered by a rebound in tech stocks. NVIDIA gained as much as 4%, paring losses from last week, while Meta and Alphabet gained roughly 2.5% each. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading 1% and 1.5% higher, respectively, as of 2 pm ET. Crypto assets, on the other hand, were in the red. Bitcoin edged slightly lower after initially jumping as high as $68,495 on Sunday afternoon. The largest cryptocurrency was hovering around $67,300 at 2 pm ET. Even as spot ETFs gear up to launch tomorrow, ETH was also losing steam on Monday, down 1% at 2 pm ET. Polymarket on Monday afternoon showed Trump leading with a 65% chance of winning. Harris, whose odds on Polymarket hit 40% Sunday, lost a bit of confidence and was hovering around 29% Monday. Betting markets show Harris has a 82% chance of securing the Democratic nomination. — Casey Wagner Happy Monday and welcome back to another week of the On the Margin newsletter. This week is the last before the Federal Open Market Committee gathers for their policy-setting meeting on July 30-31. Investors will be hoping for more signs of growth, especially after last week’s generally positive data. Here’s what we are watching: — Casey WagnerStart your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter.