RFK Jr.’s Suspended White House Bid Creates Chaos on Polymarket

A simple yes or no can still be complicated. The nuance of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s words stoked palpable confusion and wild price swings on Polymarket today, as the independent presidential candidate suspended his campaign for U.S. president.A Polymarket As Kennedy spoke, those odds nosedived to a 6% chance, as the candidate The steep drop occurred in a matter of minutes, as Polymarket traders had penciled in a 90% chance that Kennedy would drop out Friday shortly before he spoke in Arizona. At one point, those odds climbed to a 99% chance before plummeting.“I’m not terminating my campaign, I’m simply suspending it,” Kennedy said. “Our polling consistently showed by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats, with whom I disagree on the most existential issues.”As confusion spread, Polymarket traders argued whether the wager should be resolved each way. Kennedy’s chances of dropping out today, meanwhile, steadily rose. Still, as of this writing, the market was tilting toward “No,” pricing in a 41% chance that Kennedy did drop out.“What the fuck is going on?” the Polymarket user Donkov “I am watching the stream, and I have no idea what [this] guy is trying to say,” the Polymarket user GreedyMacFear Polymarket is no stranger to controversial outcomes. The platform has weathered several this year, including a That market was disputed, leaving the outcome to UMA, a DeFi protocol that settles disputes using tokens. UMA token holders are directed to vote on which outcome has actually taken place, through a process that UMA describes as its “decentralized truth machine.”Some Polymarket users posted articles from news outlets supporting their bets. One As of this writing, the Polymarket contest on Kennedy had not been disputed. Notably, it had not been resolved either, with the contest set to reach a conclusion on Friday at midnight.Edited by Ryan Ozawa.