A weeks-long fall in digital asset prices, exacerbated by protracted macroeconomic headwinds, has rattled traders. Just how dour are the vibes in crypto today?One measure of optimism—or the lack thereof—can be found in betting markets like Polymarket and Fed fund futures, which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. These nebulous but collective predictions on when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates reveal a disparity.On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, traders saw a 7% chance in March that the Fed would hold interest rates steady throughout 2024. Now, traders are That’s markedly more pessimistic than the 23% chance of zero rate cuts After predicting as many as six rate cuts earlier this year, CME traders now envision just two.“Just cut the rates bro please,” a Polymarket user named JustKen Higher interest rates typically suppress the value of riskier assets like stocks and crypto as the payouts become less attractive than holding stalwarts like cash and U.S. Treasury bills.After its policy meeting in March, the Fed “The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Powell Consumer prices rose 3.5% in the 12 months through March, the U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a report last month. Showing annual inflation was unchanged from figures in February, the crypto market Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
